NCAA and NFL
Football Wagering Tips
most important betting edge to know about in football wagering isn't
statistics or numbers. The most important edge is emotion.
Find the team that desires to win more than their opponent and they'll
cover a high percentage of those events. This is true in all
sports. But it is even more significant in a physical game like
NCAA and NFL Football. Certain Coaches are much better than
others in getting their teams ready for games by providing the impetus
for emotion. Such Coaches as Pete Carroll, Tom
O'Brien, and Bill Belichick among others have all shown
their worth in this area over the years.
Games— Be careful of
‘sandwich' games. That is the game for a team that's in between
two other more important games. The NFL split into different
Divisions recently, with fewer teams in each Division. Since then
we have both the AFC and NFC broken down into four Divisions consisting
of four teams each. They are called the East, North, South and
West. So now Division games are of even greater significance than
in the past with fewer teams in each Division. When it comes to
determining the Playoff picture, these games are the most important to
each competing team.
If Tennessee for
example, early in the season, plays Indianapolis this week and
Jacksonville in two weeks, you know they're going to be focused on
those two inter-Divisional games. But if the in-between game is
against say San Francisco, a lesser out of Conference team, be
careful! Tennessee will have most likely played a tough game the
week before, and have an important tough game the following week.
Starters may be pulled early against San Francisco, and those hurting
from the previous game might not even play in this one.
Too many bettors
jump on a team that has been covering on the ‘sandwich' game, laying
way too much ‘wood'. The team usually wins, but fails to
cover. Then the bettor jumps off of Tennessee the following week
against Jacksonville because the bettor got burnt the week before in
the sandwich game!
line movement means nothing, and sometimes it means everything.
When I wager (my favorite recreation), I want the line to be bet dead
or move ˝ to one point with me. Not a lot of movement, but
slightly in agreement with me. When a line moves more than one
point, especially in the NFL, it can be a dangerous play. This
can denote injuries or other late information such as weather,
etc. But be careful, NFL teams are notorious for giving out
misleading disinformation more so than any other
often with big line movement in the NFL, the final score falls in
between the original line and the final line. This opens the door
for ‘middlers', those who bet early one way and late the other way on
the same game. I know several gamblers who make their living on
this, and i have been successful myself at it. They give up the
10% ‘juice' in hopes of winning both ways. The most they can lose
is 5% of their total bet. They clean up if one play pushes or
wins and the other play
can be different though. With so many lined college games
nowadays, big line movement can be bet on. For two years in a row
in the early 1990's, the Ivy League football team that got the most
line movement during the week won every single game those years.
Every week! For games like these with fewer wagers on them, the
line can easily move 3 to 5 points. Sometimes it can move even
more. Beware of betting against this line movement, it generally
is right. In the Colleges, stay away from wagering against consistent
and massive line movement in one direction.
all Football bettors a great Football Wagering Season!
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