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(Gold Key Picks are always 5***** and above)

 

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August 2010

 

Check back as we go for yet another winning Football Season!

 

--Rich Green

Editor@FreeSportsLetter.com

410-536-5111

 

 

Sunday February 7

 

3*** New Orleans +5 over Indianapolis   (Super Bowl XLIV, 6:25 et)   (Weather)   (WINNER, OUTRIGHT)

We are on a great 16-5 Gold Key Basketball winning run, helping our Members with another winning Hoops Season!  We have Gold Key Basketball Specials starting as low as $99 on site!  If you can find a better value, please take it!  You are welcome to stop by our site daily for free sports picks, free injury reports, live lines, scores, gambling articles, contests, etc.  You can login daily to get your Top Rated Gold Key Picks in Football, Basketball and Baseball without anyone disturbing or calling you.  Here is tonight's Free Column release on the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl XLIV features the top seeds from each Conference which won the most games this season.  Both teams feature top Quarterbacks and great Offenses.  Both the Saints and Colts fight to the very end, and are used to winning events in the final drive.

 

The Saints won the South Division under their fourth-year Head Coach Sean Payton, and advanced here to the Big Dance by defeating both the Cardinals and Vikings in NFC Playoffs at Home.  They played poorly down the stretch, but recovered quickly for the Playoffs, and this event can be closer than expected tonight.  Positive trends for the Saints include 4-0 ATS in non-Conference Play, 53-42 ATS on Grass fields, and 48-37 ATS as Dogs in this point range.

 

The Colts won the AFC out of the South Division, and under their first-year Head Coach Jim Caldwell gained the Bye and defeated both the Ravens and Jets easily at Home in the AFC Playoffs.  They feature arguably the best Quarterback of the current era in Peyton Manning, and a better Defense than they are given credit for.  With DE Freeney unlikely to be 100% even if he plays, this can have a detrimental effect on the team.  The Colts show positive trends in virtually every category for this game, but keep in mind the old saying, "On any given Sunday."


The line closed at Colts -5.  We'll take those points and the Saints to cover for us here tonight in a Good Free Pick.  For those who don't know it, our Members rarely wager on the FREE release, and instead invest their money wisely on the Gold Key Picks.

 

 

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--Rich Green

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2009 NCAA and NFL Football Wagering Tips  

Emotion— The most important betting edge to know about in football wagering isn't statistics or numbers.  The most important edge is emotion.  Find the team that desires to win more than their opponent and they'll cover a high percentage of those events.  This is true in all sports.  But it is even more significant in a physical game like NCAA and NFL Football.  Certain Coaches are much better than others in getting their teams ready for games by providing the impetus for emotion.  Such Coaches as Bobby Bowden, Pete Carroll, Tom O'Brien, Urban Meyer, and Bill Belichick among others have all shown their worth in this area over the years. 

Sandwich Games— Be careful of ‘sandwich' games. That is the game for a team that's in between two other more important games.  The NFL split into different Divisions recently, with fewer teams in each Division.  Since then we have both the AFC and NFC broken down into four Divisions consisting of four teams each.  They are called the East, North, South and West.  So now Division games are of even greater significance than in the past with fewer teams in each Division.  When it comes to determining the Playoff picture, these games are the most important to each competing team. 

If Tennessee for example, early in the season, plays Indianapolis this week and Jacksonville in two weeks, you know they're going to be focused on those two inter-Divisional games.  But if the in-between game is against say San Francisco, a lesser out of Conference team, be careful!  Tennessee will have most likely played a tough game the week before, and have an important tough game the following week.  Starters may be pulled early against San Francisco, and those hurting from the previous game might not even play in this one. 

Too many bettors jump on a team that has been covering on the ‘sandwich' game, laying way too much ‘wood'.  The team usually wins, but fails to cover.  Then the bettor jumps off of Tennessee the following week against Jacksonville because the bettor got burnt the week before in the sandwich game!

Line Movement— Sometimes line movement means nothing, and sometimes it means everything.  When I wager (my favorite recreation), I want the line to be bet dead or move ˝ to one point with me.  Not a lot of movement, but slightly in agreement with me.  When a line moves more than one point, especially in the NFL, it can be a dangerous play.  This can denote injuries or other late information such as weather, etc.  But be careful, NFL teams are notorious for giving out misleading disinformation more so than any other sport.                 

Quite often with big line movement in the NFL, the final score falls in between the original line and the final line.  This opens the door for ‘middlers', those who bet early one way and late the other way on the same game.  I know several gamblers who make their living on this, and i have been successful myself at it.  They give up the 10% ‘juice' in hopes of winning both ways.  The most they can lose is 5% of their total bet.  They clean up if one play pushes or wins and the other play wins.                 

NCAA football can be different though. With so many lined college games nowadays, big line movement can be bet on.  For two years in a row in the early 1990's, the Ivy League football team that got the most line movement during the week won every single game those years.  Every week!  For games like these with fewer wagers on them, the line can easily move 3 to 5 points.  Sometimes it can move even more.  Beware of betting against this line movement, it generally is right. In the Colleges, stay away from wagering against consistent and massive line movement in one direction. 

Here's wishing all Football bettors a great 2009 Football Wagering Season!  

--Rich Green

Editor@FreeSportsLetter.com


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