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Some Baseball Wagering
Tips: by Rich Green, Editor.
Everyone has their own opinion about which sport is the easiest, and
which sport is the most difficult to win money on. Some say the NFL is
the toughest, and quote, "On any given Sunday." Others think the NBA is
the toughest to win consistently on. But IMHO, the toughest sport to
win money on is Baseball. Not because of the sport itself, but because
of poor money management, most players' downfall.
Other than a brief
break in July for the All-Star Break, every single day from April
through September has plenty of action. Like in all sports, we
recommend limiting the number of games you wager on daily. Those who
have been in our Gold Key
program have learned to respect the idea of wagering on one to possibly
a maximum of three strong games a day. All it takes is one bad day
early in your week going 2-6 or worse, then you must try to chase to
get your money back, a dangerous way to gamble. And go 4-3 or 5-4, you
won't really make any money.
Your Sportsbook
Operator or Man plays with himself when you call in six or more plays a
day, knowing he will be getting your money real quick. This doesn't
mean you can't place a few "kibbitz" bets, that really won't affect
your bankroll. As always we recommend only using lesser plays as parlay
games from the strongest plays.
Remember that you are
playing a money line in Baseball, not involving a point spread like
Hoops or Football. If you lay $180 to win $100 (9 to 5 odds) on say the
Yankees, you must win two out of every three games, and then you will
only show a $20 profit! It takes only a few losses on games with odds
like those to decimate your bankroll.
Try to stick with a
team that plays well for a particular pitcher, it's amazing how some
teams will give great Offensive support to one starter, but fail
miserably for the others. Remember that the star starting pitcher on an
average team that lacks other good starters will almost always face the
Ace of a stronger team.
For instance, Mike Mussina faced the Ace
of other teams regularly with the Orioles, and his team rarely provided
any reasonable run support for him. But he became just another top
pitcher on a great Yankee's starting staff. Opponents cannot simply
line up their Ace to face him, when other starters on his team are
equal or better.
My longtime players know i always figure
in "streak handicapping" in any sport. It's my belief that life and
sports betting are similar in that they both can be roller coasters,
top of the world one moment, then a bottomless pit the next. Look for
the team that is winning consistently at good odds, and pound them. If
they get hot, keep going with them until they fail to win. Then lay off
of them. You only lose once.
The key is to hop on the streak before it
comes to an end. Those who shoot dice regularly understand the theory
of streaks, and can stand at a craps table for hours, sometimes
watching the dice go from consistently winning on the "Do", to
consistently winning on the "Don't". But the majority of the time the
table is "choppy". Baseball wagering can be the same way. Wait for your
team or situation to "streak" then keep playing on them until you lose
once, then stop.
Late in the season when contending teams are playing
hard for Playoff positioning, the money line can change to "Runs" when
these teams face lower echelon teams. Today modern online SportsBooks
offer these plays regularly.
Beware of these plays,
there are pitfalls. The favored team at Home
will not bat in the bottom of the ninth if up by a run, and a solo home
run in the bottom of the ninth or extra innings will beat you also if
you've laid more than a run. A long drive hit will only score one run
in extra innings, regardless of the number of runners on base, enough
to win the ballgame, but not cover the Runs line. We saw last
year in the Playoffs a player never finish rounding the bases after
hitting a home run to win the game, the run did not count. But we
do use the Runs Line Plays when deemed profitable to our betting
strategy.
Our longtime players know how much we base
our wagers on Defense. For that is the key to winning in any sport. And
Baseball is the only major sport where the Defense holds the ball!
That's why Pitching and team Defense win World Series. Also Baseball
games are won more on team play than most any other sport. Again, just
look at the Yankees. Yes, they have a great SS and CF, but it is their
solid Defense, Pitching and team play that wins for them. They know
that regardless of the situation during the game, they will prevail in
the late innings with great Defense, Pitching, and clutch team hitting.
Ever notice that those teams that pay so much for one or two great
Offensive Superstars rarely win it all? SS Rodriquez when he was
with the Texas Rangers with his massive contract comes to
mind. Whatever sells tickets we guess.
There are many other "tricks of the trade" to Baseball wagering. Look
for more articles on this during the season. Take care and happy
Baseball betting, Members!
-- Rich
Editor@FreeSportsLetter.com
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