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2012 NFL and NCAA Football Against The Spread (ATS) Trends

Here is a look before the 2012 College Football season starts on lined teams and some basic ATS trends:

Air Force -- 6-0 ATS as Dogs with Rest, 6-0 Home off a Straight Up Dog win, 8-1 ATS after playing Wyoming

Akron -- New Head Coach, 4-0 ATS with Rest off a win, 0-5 ATS after playing Kent

Alabama -- 22-10 ATS as Road Favorites, 1-6 ATS before playing Tennessee

UAB -- New Head Coach, 5-1 ATS as non-Conference Dogs, 0-5 ATS as Favorites greater than 11 points

Arizona -- New Head Coach, 6-1 ATS vs Usc, 1-6 ATS after playing Usc

Arizona State -- New Head Coach, 7-1 ATS after playing Oregon State, 0-4 ATS as Favs off a SU Fav loss

Arkansas -- New Head Coach, 10-1 ATS as Favorites <=15 points, 1-7 ATS before playing Alabama

Arkansas State -- New Head Coach, 5-0 ATS in Game One, 0-4 ATS after allowing 10 or less points

Army -- 11-1 ATS as Dogs in first of back-to-back Road Games, 5-26 ATS with Rest

Auburn -- 11-2 ATS after playing Ark, 1-5 ATS as Road Favs > a Field Goal

Ball State -- 25-8 ATS as Road Dogs recently, 0-5 ATS in first of back-to-back Home Games

Baylor -- 4-0 ATS as Road Dogs greater than 12 points, 1-10 ATS before playing Oklahoma

Boise State -- 6-0 ATS in second of back-to-back Road games, 0-4 ATS in first of back-to-back Road games

Boston College -- 8-0 ATS in second of back-to-back Road Games, 0-5 ATS off non-Conference game versus below avg opponents

Bowling Green -- 20-11 ATS as Road Dogs recently, 1-8 ATS with Rest

BYU -- 5-0 ATS before playing Utah, 0-6 ATS in second of back-to-back Road Games

Buffalo -- 4-1 ATS as Home Favorites with Revenge, 2-8 ATS vs non-Conference opponents

California -- 9-1 ATS in first lined Game, 0-5 ATS as Favs off a SU Dog win

Central Florida -- 6-1 ATS after playing Southern Mississippi, 2-8 ATS with Rest

Central Michigan -- 11-2 ATS in Conference openers, 1-7 ATS as Dogs off a SU Dog win

Cincinnati -- 9-0 ATS before playing Louisville, 2-8 ATS last game of season

Clemson -- 6-0 ATS after playing Florida State, 2-9 ATS as Double Digit Road Favorites

Colorado -- 0-9 ATS as Favs versus the Pac 12, 1-9 ATS as Dogs off a Straight Up Dog win

Colorado State -- New Head Coach, 1-8 ATS before playing San Diego State, 1-5 ATS as non-Conference Road Favs

Connecticut -- 13-2 ATS as Home Dogs, 0-6 ATS on the Road after allowing a TouchDown or less

Duke -- 18-11 ATS as Road Dogs, 2-11 ATS on the Road after scoring 35 or more points

East Carolina -- 14-1 ATS as Conference Road Dogs of six or less points, 0-4 ATS before playing Houston

Eastern Michigan -- 7-0 ATS in last Road Game, 1-5 ATS off a SU Dog win

Florida -- 11-2 ATS Home off non-Conference Play, 0-5 ATS at Home off back-to-back Road Games

Florida Atlantic -- New Head Coach, 4-1 ATS after playing Troy, 0-4 ATS before playing Florida Int

Florida International -- 8-1 ATS after scoring 35 or more points, 0-6 ATS after playing Arkansas State

Florida State -- 8-0 ATS in Bowl Games, 0-6 ATS before playing Clemson

Fresno State -- New Head Coach, 4-1 ATS with Rest, 2-10 ATS at Home after allowing 35 or more points

Georgia -- 6-0 ATS on the Road off a SU Dog win, 1-5 ATS before playing Ole Miss

Georgia Tech -- 7-1 ATS after playing Virginia, 0-8 ATS on the Road vs opponents off a SU Dog win

Hawaii -- New Head Coach, 5-1 ATS on the Road off a SU Fav loss, Home team is 0-7 ATS in Fresno State series

Houston -- New Head Coach, Road team is 5-1 ATS in East Carolina series, 0-4 ATS after scoring 3 or less points

Idaho -- 7-1 ATS as Dogs less than 9 points, 1-8 ATS as Double Digit Favs

Illinois -- New Head Coach, 4-0 ATS before playing Minnesota, 1-9 ATS as Field Goal Favs or greater in the first of back-to-back Home Games

Indiana -- 5-1 ATS after Playing Illinois, 2-13 ATS before playing Purdue

Iowa -- 11-0 ATS before playing Ind, 0-10 ATS as Double Digit Road Favs

Iowa State -- Road team is 6-0 ATS in Texas series, 0-4 ATS vs below avg opponents

Kansas -- New Head coach, 10-0 ATS at Home versus below avg opponents, 1-10 ATS after playing Kansas State

Kansas State -- 5-0 ATS after playing Texas Tech, 1-6 ATS as Road Favs of 5 or greater points

Kent State -- 4-0 ATS after playing Bowling Green, 2-12 ATS in non-Conference Play

Kentucky -- 6-1 ATS before playing Georgia, 1-4 ATS after playing Georgia

UL-Lafayette -- 6-0 ATS off non-Conference Play, 1-4 ATS with Rest in Conference Play

UL-Monroe -- 10-0 ATS of back-to-back SU and ATS losses, 1-5 ATS as Double Digit Favs

LSU -- 7-0 ATS as Dogs off SU and ATS loss, 0-8 ATS at Home vs Ole Miss

Louisiana Tech -- 7-1 ATS as Conference Home Dogs, 7-0 ATS as Road Dogs

Louisville -- 9-0 ATS as Double Digit Dogs off a SU win, 1-7 ATS with Rest versus below avg opponents

Marshall -- 5-0 ATS after scoring 10 or less pts, 0-6 ATS as Road Favs > 12 points

Maryland -- 10-1 ATS before playing Virginia, 0-4 ATS with Rest

Memphis -- New Head Coach, 11-0 ATS in last Road Game, 0-4 ATS with Rest

Miami -- 6-1 ATS in second of back-to-back Road Games, 1-12 ATS off back-to-back SU and ATS wins

Miami OH -- 5-1 ATS on Weekdays, 0-6 ATS after playing Bowling Green

Michigan -- 5-0 ATS before playing Minnesota, 4-8 ATS as Road Dogs

Michigan State -- 11-2 ATS vs better than avg opponents, 4-1 ATS after playing Michigan

MTSU -- 7-0 ATS off a SU Dog win, 1-8 ATS after playing Troy

Minnesota -- 6-1 ATS as Double Digit Favs, 0-4 ATS before playing Michigan

Mississippi -- New Head Coach, 4-0 ATS after playing Georgia, 0-7 ATS as Road Favs off a SU win

Mississippi State -- 6-1 ATS as Favs with Revenge, 2-9 ATS after playing Auburn

Missouri -- 43-3 ATS when they win Straight Up on the Road, 6-10 ATS as Home Favs

Navy -- 22-8 ATS as Road Dogs, 0-6 ATS off a SU Dog win

Nebraska -- 7-1 ATS as Road Favs <10 pts, 0-5 ATS in the second of back-to-back Home Games

Nevada -- 10-0 ATS at Home in Conference Play, Fav in Fresno State series is 1-6 ATS

New Mexico -- New Head Coach, Road team in New Mexico State series is 4-0 ATS, 0-4 ATS before playing New Mexico State

New Mexico State -- 5-0 ATS with Rest, 0-13 ATS at Home vs opponents with Revenge

North Carolina -- New Head Coach, 10-2 ATS as Home Dogs vs better than avg Conference opponents, 0-5 ATS versus NC State

North Carolina State -- 5-0 ATS after playing Florida State, 1-4 ATS after playing North Carolina

North Texas -- 5-0 ATS off back-to-back SU wins, 0-8 ATS after playing Florida Atlantic

Northern Illinois -- 5-1 ATS as Dogs with Rest, 1-7 ATS after playing W. Michigan

Northwestern -- 15-2 ATS before playing Michigan, 0-5 ATS before playing Iowa

Notre Dame -- 5-0 ATS in the second of back-to-back Road Games, 1-7 ATS after playing Navy

Ohio State -- New Head Coach, 10-0 ATS with Revenge, 1-5 ATS after playing Wisconsin

Ohio U -- 6-0 ATS after playing Akron, 2-10 ATS off non-Conference SU and ATS loss

Oklahoma -- 8-0 ATS after playing Texas Tech, Home team is 1-6 ATS in Baylor series

Oklahoma State -- 4-0 ATS before playing Baylor, 0-4 ATS as Home Dogs

Oregon -- 24-13 ATS as Home Favorites, 1-7 ATS before playing Oregon State

Oregon State -- 9-1 ATS after playing Washington State, 0-7 ATS in Conference openers

Penn State -- New Head Coach, 7-1 ATS after playing Illinois, 2-10 ATS as Road Dogs

Pittsburgh -- New Head Coach, 8-0 ATS off a SU Dog win, 1-8 ATS as Favs >21.5 pts

Purdue -- 9-3 ATS versus Minnesota, 0-5 ATS after playing Ohio State

Rice -- 26-4 ATS as Home Dogs in Conference Play, 7-16 ATS as Road Dogs

Rutgers -- New Head Coach, 7-0 ATS in second of back-to-back Road games, 5-11 ATS as Home Favs

San Diego State -- 7-1 ATS as non-Conference Favs >3,5 pts, 1-9 ATS before playing Air Force

San Jose State -- 6-0 ATS as Road Favs off a Double Digit SU win, 1-6 ATS with Rest

SMU -- 6-1 ATS before playing Rice, 0-8 ATS before playing Tulsa

South Carolina -- 8-0 ATS at Home off a Double Digit ATS loss, 1-5 ATS after playing Vanderbilt

South Florida -- 6-0 ATS in last Road game, 1-6 ATS after playing Syracuse

Southern Mississippi -- New Head Coach, 9-2 ATS vs East Carolina, 0-4 ATS before playing Memphis

Stanford -- 7-0 ATS before playing Oregon State, 1-5 ATS off a SU Dog win

Syracuse -- 6-1 ATS with Rest, 1-5 ATS after playing Rutgers

TCU -- 4-0 ATS at Home in Conference Play, 0-5 ATS off SU Dog win vs below avg opponents

Temple -- 11-1 ATS as Home Dogs, 1-6 ATS on Weekdays

Tennessee -- Road team is 13-2 ATS in South Carolina series, 0-7 ATS as Home Dogs

Texas -- 5-1 ATS with Rest, 1-4 ATS after allowing >34.5 pts

Texas A&M -- New Head Coach, 4-0 ATS versus La Tech, 2-42 ATS when they lose on the Road

Texas Tech -- 12-1 ATS before playing Texas, 1-5 ATS as Home Favs

Toledo -- New Head Coach, Home team is 11-2 ATS in Bowling Green series, 2-9 ATS on the Road vs better than avg non-Conference opponents

Troy -- 5-0 ATS at Home vs better than avg opponents, 0-8 ATS before playing North Texas

Tulane -- New Head Coach, 5-1 ATS after scoring <10.5 pts, 0-8 ATS versus Houston

Tulsa -- 7-0 ATS on the Road in Conference Play, 0-5 ATS versus the Big Twelve

UCLA -- New Head Coach,Home team is 8-1 ATS in Arizona series, 1-8 ATS as Road Dogs <15.5 pts

UNLV -- 7-2 ATS as Home Dogs, 0-7 ATS after playing Nevada

USC -- 6-1 ATS versus Cal, 1-5 ATS before playing Stanford

Utah -- 5-0 ATS at Utah State, 1-6 ATS on the Road vs the Pac 12

Utah State -- 6-1 ATS after playing Utah, 1-6 ATS after scoring >34.5 pts

UTEP -- 5-0 ATS versus Smu, 0-8 ATS after playing Tulsa

Vanderbilt -- 5-1 ATS before playing Auburn, 3-7 ATS as Road Dogs

Virginia -- 9-1 ATS on the Road off back-to-back ATS losses, 0-4 ATS versus Duke

Virginia Tech -- 22-3 ATS as Road Favs of eight or less points, 0-5 ATS as Home Favs

Wake Forest -- 8-1 ATS after playing Boston College, 0-7 ATS in 2nd of back-to-back Road games

Washington -- 5-0 ATS with Rest, 0-7 ATS after playing Usc

Washington State -- New Head Coach, 9-2 ATS after playing Cal, 0-7 ATS as Home Favs <10.5 pts

West Virginia -- 11-0 ATS as Conference Dogs of two or more points, 2-11 ATS Home vs opponents off a Double Digit SU loss

Western Kentucky -- 9-0 ATS covers in a row, 2-8 ATS Home off non-Conference Play

Western Michigan -- Road team is 6-1 ATS in Ball State series, 0-5 ATS before playing Eastern Michigan

Wisconsin -- 6-0 ATS before playing Indiana, 1-7 ATS after playing Purdue

Wyoming -- 5-0 ATS as Dogs of a Touchdown or less, 2-15 ATS vs opponents with Revenge

 

 

Here is a look before the 2012 NFL Football season starts on teams and some basic ATS trends:

 

Arizona -- 5-1 ATS before Seattle, 4-1 ATS as Dogs vs NFC North, 0-5 ATS a MNF Favs, 0-4 ATS after playing Seattle

Atlanta -- 6-1 ATS before playing Tampa Bay, 8-0 ATS after scoring 10 or less points, 0-3 ATS at New Orleans, 1-6 ATS at Home vs Giants

Baltimore -- 9-1 ATS with Rest, 6-0 ATS as Division Dogs, 1-4 ATS before playing Pittsburgh, 2-8 ATS off MNF

Buffalo -- Visitor in Jets Series is 8-1 ATS, 4-0 ATS as Favs with Rest, 1-6 ATS after playing New England, 1-4 ATS before Bye

Carolina -- 8-1 ATS after allowing at least 35 points, 10-1 ATS as Home Dogs > a TouchDown, 1-5 ATS before Bye, 0-4 ATS after playing Tampa Bay

Chicago -- 9-2 ATS after playing Minnesota, 7-1 ATS as Road Favs off a SU Dog win, 2-8 ATS as MNF Favs, 0-5 ATS before playing Minnesota

Cincinnati -- 12-3 ATS before playing Pittsburgh, 6-1 ATS after scoring <10.5 pts, 0-6 ATS vs opponents with Rest, 4-14 ATS as Home Favs

Cleveland -- 6-1 ATS at Home versus AFC East, 6-1 ATS as Road Favs, 0-5 ATS at Home vs non-Conference opponents, 1-5 ATS before playing Cincinnati at Home

Dallas -- 7-1 ATS with Rest, 8-2 ATS at Home vs NFC West, 16-127 ATS when they lose Straight Up, 1-5 ATS off Division Home game

Denver -- 8-1 ATS in 1st of back-to-back Road games, 10-2 ATS with Rest vs better than avg opponents, 1-12 ATS as Favs > six points, 0-6 ATS in 2nd of back-to-back Road games

Detroit -- 5-1 ATS with Rest vs better than avg opponents, 8-2 ATS Dogs off Division Play, 1-9 ATS on the Road off non-Conference Play, 1-6 ATS in Division Play after scoring >34.5 pts

Green Bay -- 9-1 ATS before playing Minnesota, 7-0 ATS with Rest, 2-8 ATS versus NFC South, 1-6 ATS as Road Favs >6 pts

Houston -- 7-0 ATS after playing Jacksonville, 4-0 ATS after scoring <10 points, 1-5 ATS vs opponents with Rest, 0-4 ATS vs AFC West

Indianapolis -- New Head Coach, 8-2 ATS vs opponents with Rest, 14-0 ATS as Division Home Dogs >4.5 pts, 0-7 ATS as Favs in last Home Game, 1-9 ATS on the Road off a SU Fav loss

Jacksonville -- New Head Coach, 16-4 ATS before playing Tennessee, 5-1 ATS before Bye Week, 1-5 ATS after playing Indianapolis, 1-5 ATS vs upper echelon opponents

Kansas City -- New Head Coach, 10-2 ATS second of back-to-back Road Games, 8-0 ATS as non-Division Favs >7.5 pts, 0-10 ATS as Division Favs, 0-8 ATS vs AFC East

Miami -- New Head Coach, 13-1 ATS as non-Division Dogs >6.5 pts, 5-1 ATS on the Road vs AFC South, 1-8 ATS after playing the Jets, 0-7 ATS as Home Favs >6.5 pts

Minnesota -- New Head Coach, 7-1 ATS at Home vs San Francisco, 4-0 ATS as Favs with Rest, 2-10 ATS as Favs before playing Green Bay, 0-4 ATS vs opponents with Rest

New England -- 10-0 ATS as non-Conference Favs of less than 6.5 pts, 9-0 ATS as Dogs off a Double Digit SU loss, 1-7 ATS as Favs off back-to-back SU losses, 2-10 ATS as Favs >11 pts

New Orleans -- New Head Coach, 6-0 ATS as Division Road Favs <5.5 pts, 5-1 ATS as non-Division Dogs six or greater points, 0-5 ATS as Div Favs >10.5 pts, 1-5 ATS before playing Tampa Bay

NY Giants -- 12-2 ATS after playing Washington, 11-2 ATS as Favs vs NFC West, 1-6 ATS as Div Favs >3.5 pts, 1-4 ATS before Bye

NY Jets -- 5-1 ATS after playing Buffalo, 5-1 ATS before Bye, 0-7 ATS as non-Conference Dogs of at least four points, 2-8 ATS vs non-Conference rivals on Road

Oakland -- New Head Coach, Road team in Kansas City series is 11-1 ATS, 10-1 ATS on the Road before Bye, 0-5 ATS before playing San Diego, 0-9 ATS with Rest

Philadelphia -- 10-0 ATS after playing Washington, 7-0 ATS after scoring 10 or less points, 0-5 ATS vs NFC North, 0-4 ATS after playing Giants

Pittsburgh -- 6-1 ATS as Dogs off a DD SU loss, 4-0 ATS after playing Baltimore, 1-9 ATS as Favs before playing Cincinnati, 0-5 ATS after playing Cincinnati

St. Louis -- New Head Coach, 6-1 ATS before playing Arizona, 11-0 ATS after scoring 35 or > points, 2-11 ATS after playing a Division Road Game, 1-8 ATS after playing San Francisco

San Diego -- 5-0 ATS as Conference Home Dogs, 9-1 ATS after playing Denver, 1-10 ATS as Favs >10 pts, 0-7 ATS on the Road vs AFC East

San Francisco -- 12-0 ATS as beaten Favs, 5-0 ATS on MNF, 0-6 ATS before playing MNF, 3-12 ATS as Road Favs

Seattle -- 5-0 ATS on MNF, 11-2 ATS at Home in non-Conference Play, 1-7 ATS when the Total is >45.5, 1-5 ATS before MNF

Tampa Bay -- New Head Coach, 5-1 ATS with Rest, 7-1 ATS as Div Favs, 5-16 ATS at Home, 0-4 ATS after playing New Orleans

Tennessee -- 6-0 ATS as Double Digit Favorites, 5-0 ATS vs opponents with Rest, 0-5 ATS after playing Indianapolis, 0-6 ATS off a Double Digit ATS win

Washington -- 10-2 ATS before playing Giants, 5-0 ATS after playing Dallas, 0-7 ATS as non-Conference Home Favs, 0-4 ATS with Rest

 

 

2012 NFL AND NCAA Football Wagering Tips 

Emotion— The most important betting edge to know about in football wagering isn't statistics or numbers.  The most important edge is emotion.  Find the team that desires to win more than their opponent and they'll cover a high percentage of those events.  This is true in all sports.  But it is even more significant in a physical game like NCAA and NFL Football.  Certain Coaches are much better than others in getting their teams ready for games by providing the impetus for emotion.  Such Coaches as Frank Beamer, Paul Johnson, Tom O'Brien, and Bill Belichick among others have all shown their worth in this area over the years. 

Sandwich Games— Be careful of ‘sandwich' games. That is the game for a team that's in between two other more important games.  The NFL split into different Divisions recently, with fewer teams in each Division.  Since then we have both the AFC and NFC broken down into four Divisions consisting of four teams each.  They are called the East, North, South and West.  So now Division games are of even greater significance than in the past with fewer teams in each Division.  When it comes to determining the Playoff picture, these games are the most important to each competing team. 

If Tennessee for example, early in the season, plays Indianapolis this week and Jacksonville in two weeks, you know they're going to be focused on those two inter-Divisional games.  But if the in-between game is against say San Francisco, a lesser out of Conference team, be careful!  Tennessee will have most likely played a tough game the week before, and have an important tough game the following week.  Starters may be pulled early against San Francisco, and those hurting from the previous game might not even play in this one. 

Too many bettors jump on a team that has been covering on the ‘sandwich' game, laying way too much ‘wood'.  The team usually wins, but fails to cover.  Then the bettor jumps off of Tennessee the following week against Jacksonville because the bettor got burnt the week before in the sandwich game!

Line Movement— Sometimes line movement means nothing, and sometimes it means everything.  When I wager (my favorite recreation), I want the line to be bet dead or move ˝ to one point with me.  Not a lot of movement, but slightly in agreement with me.  When a line moves more than one point, especially in the NFL, it can be a dangerous play.  This can denote injuries or other late information such as weather, etc.  But be careful, NFL teams are notorious for giving out misleading disinformation more so than any other sport.

Quite often with big line movement in the NFL, the final score falls in between the original line and the final line.  This opens the door for ‘middlers', those who bet early one way and late the other way on the same game.  I know several gamblers who make their living on this, and i have been successful myself at it.  They give up the 10% ‘juice' in hopes of winning both ways.  The most they can lose is 5% of their total bet.  They clean up if one play pushes or wins and the other play wins.

NCAA football can be different though. With so many lined college games nowadays, big line movement can be bet on.  For two years in a row in the early 1990's, the Ivy League football team that got the most line movement during the week won every single game those years.  Every week!  For games like these with fewer wagers on them, the line can easily move 3 to 5 points.  Sometimes it can move even more.  Beware of betting against this line movement, it generally is right. In the Colleges, stay away from wagering against consistent and massive line movement in one direction. 

Here's wishing all Football bettors a great 2012 Football Wagering Season!  Make sure to stop by the http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com site for tons of FREE Wagering Information, Contests, Lines, Scores, and more importantly, FREE Winners! 

--Rich Green

Editor@FreeSportsLetter.com

http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com

 

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