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2011 NFL and NCAA Football Against The Spread (ATS) Trends
Here is a look before the 2011 College Football season starts on lined teams and some basic ATS trends:
Air Force -- 6-0 ATS as Dogs with Rest, 6-1 off a Straight Up Dog win, 2-8 ATS after scoring less than 10 points, 1-8 ATS as Conference Home Favorites greater than 14 points
Akron -- 4-0 ATS with Rest off a win, 1-12 ATS on the Road versus average or better Conference foes
Alabama -- 17-9 ATS as Road Favorites past six seasons, Road team is 17-2 ATS in Tennessee series, 0-6 ATS before playing Tennessee
UAB -- 5-1 ATS before playing Houston, 0-4 ATS as Favorites greater than 11 points
Arizona -- 5-1 ATS after playing Cal, 1-8 ATS in the first of back-to-back Road games, 1-4 ATS before playing USC
Arizona
State -- 7-1 ATS after scoring at least 35 points, 1-8 ATS as Favs off a SU Fav loss
Arkansas -- 13-2 ATS off back-to-back Straight Up losses, 1-6 ATS before playing Alabama
Arkansas
State -- New Head Coach, 4-0 ATS in Game One, 0-4 ATS after allowing 10 or less points
Army -- 12-1 ATS in first of back-to-back Road Games, 4-25 ATS with Rest
Auburn -- 10-2 ATS after playing Ark, 1-5 ATS as Road Favs > a Field Goal
Ball
State -- New Head Coach, 20-6 ATS as Road Dogs recently, 1-4 ATS in first of back-to-back Home Games
Baylor -- 8-2 ATS as Dogs greater than 12 points, Road team in Oklahoma series is 10-1 ATS
Boise
State -- 10-4 ATS in Conference Play, 0-4 ATS as Weekday Favs < 22 points
Boston College -- 5-0 ATS in second of back-to-back Road Games, 1-5 ATS after playing Virginia Tech
Bowling
Green -- 17-8 ATS as Road Dogs recently, 1-5 ATS before playing Akron
BYU -- 7-0 ATS in first of back-to-back Road Games, 0-6 ATS in second of back-to-back Road Games
Buffalo
-- 7-0 ATS before playing Akron, 0-6 ATS in second of back-to-back Road Games
California
-- 7-1 ATS in first lined Game, 0-5 ATS off a SU Dog win
Central Florida -- 6-0 ATS after playing Southern Mississippi, 7-1 ATS on Weekdays, 1-5 ATS with Rest
Central
Michigan -- 11-1 ATS in Conference openers, 1-6 ATS as Dogs off a SU Dog win
Cincinnati -- 8-0 ATS before playing Louisville, 0-6 ATS last game of season
Clemson -- 5-0 ATS after playing Florida State, 2-9 ATS as Double Digit Road Favorites
Colorado -- New Head Coach, 1-11 ATS versus the Pac 10, 1-7 ATS before playing Kansas
Colorado State -- 11-0 ATS at Home off non-Conference Play, 1-5 ATS as non-Conference Road Favs
Connecticut
-- 11-2 ATS as Home Dogs, 10-0 ATS in first of back-to-back Home Games, 0-5 ATS on the Road after allowing a TouchDown or less
Duke --
16-9 ATS as Road Dogs, 3-14 ATS at Home in non-Conference Play
East
Carolina -- 12-0 ATS as Conference Road Dogs of six or less points, 0-7 ATS as Road Favs greater than six points
Eastern Michigan -- 6-0 ATS in last Road Game, 6-16 ATS as Home Dogs
Florida
-- New Head Coach, 11-1 ATS as Conference Dogs, 0-5 ATS at Home off back-to-back Road Games
Florida
Atlantic -- Home team is 4-1 ATS in Ark St match up, 0-4 ATS before playing Florida Int
Florida International -- 5-0 ATS off a Double Digit SU win, 0-4 ATS after playing Arkansas State
Florida
State -- 7-0 ATS in Bowl Games, 0-5 ATS before playing Clemson
Fresno State -- 4-0 ATS with Rest, 1-17 ATS off a SU and ATS loss
Georgia
-- 6-0 ATS on the Road off a SU Dog win, 1-5 ATS before playing Tenn
Georgia
Tech -- 6-1 ATS off a SU Fav loss, 6-0 ATS in the second of back-to-back Road Games
Hawaii -- 5-1 ATS off a SU Fav loss, Home team is 0-6 ATS in Fresno State series, 2-11 ATS as Dogs with Rest
Houston -- 0-10 ATS on the Road off back-to-back SU wins
Idaho -- 5-1 ATS before playing La Tech, 1-8 ATS as Double Digit Favs
Illinois
-- 8-3 ATS as Road Dogs, 1-8 ATS as Favs in the first of back-to-back Home Games
Indiana
-- New Head Coach, 5-0 ATS after Playing Illinois, 2-12 ATS before playing Purdue
Iowa -- 10-0 ATS before playing Ind, 0-9 ATS as Double Digit Road Favs
Iowa State -- 5-0 ATS after playing Missouri, 1-8 ATS before playing Oklahoma
Kansas -- 10-0 ATS at Home versus below avg opponents, 1-9 ATS after playing Kansas State
Kansas
State -- 4-0 ATS after playing Texas Tech, 3-11 ATS as Road Favorites, 0-6 ATS as Favs > five points
Kent
State -- New Head Coach, 4-1 ATS on Weekdays, 1-5 ATS as Home Favs off a SU loss
Kentucky
-- 6-0 ATS before playing Georgia, 1-5 ATS before playing Ole Miss
UL-Lafayette
-- New Head Coach, 4-0 ATS in first of back-to-back Road Games, 1-5 ATS as Double Digit Dogs with Rest
UL-Monroe
-- 8-0 ATS of back-to-back SU and ATS losses, 2-9 ATS with Rest
LSU -- 6-1 ATS after playing Auburn, 3-17 ATS as Conference Home Favs of two or more points
Louisiana Tech -- Home team is 7-0 ATS in Hawaii series, 10-29 ATS as Road Dogs
Louisville
-- 8-0 ATS as Double Digit Dogs off a SU win, 1-6 ATS with Rest versus below avg opponents
Marshall
-- 4-1 ATS on the Road off a Double Digit ATS win, 0-6 ATS as Road Favs > 12 points
Maryland
-- New Head Coach, 5-1 ATS after playing Florida State, 1-5 ATS on the Road versus below avg rivals
Memphis
-- 10-0 ATS in last Road Game, 1-6 ATS before playing Houston
Miami --
New Head Coach, 4-1 ATS in second of back-to-back Road Games, 0-5 ATS in second of back-to-back Home Games
Miami OH -- New Head Coach,7-0 ATS before playing Bowling Green, Dog in Ohio U series is 0-7 ATS
Michigan -- New Head Coach, 4-0 ATS after playing Notre Dame, Fav in Notre Dame series is 2-13 ATS
Michigan
State -- 5-1 ATS before playing Iowa, 0-4 ATS with Rest
MTSU -- 5-0 ATS as Favs of 11 or more points, 0-6 ATS with Rest
Minnesota
-- New Head Coach, 9-2 ATS as non-Conference Road Favs, 0-4 ATS before playing Michigan
Mississippi
-- 5-1 ATS after playing Georgia, 1-6 ATS before playing Alabama
Mississippi
State -- 5-0 ATS versus Memphis, 0-8 ATS on Weekdays
Missouri
-- 42-3 ATS when they win Straight Up on the Road, 4-8 ATS as Home Favs
Navy --
19-7 ATS as Road Dogs, 0-6 ATS Home after playing Air Force
Nebraska
-- 8-0 ATS after playing Texas A&M, 2-9 ATS in the second of back-to-back Home Games
Nevada -- 5-0 ATS after playing New Mexico State, 0-6 ATS after playing Utah State
New
Mexico -- 5-0 ATS after playing New Mexico State, 0-4 ATS before playing New Mexico State
New
Mexico State -- 4-1 ATS versus Fresno State, 0-6 ATS before playing Fresno State
North
Carolina -- Road Team in Va Tech Series is 5-0 ATS, 0-4 ATS versus NC State
North
Carolina State -- 4-0 ATS after playing Florida State, Home Team in Clemson Series is 0-6 ATS
North
Texas -- New Head Coach, 8-1 ATS after playing MTSU, 1-10 ATS as Favs
Northern
Illinois -- New Head Coach, 5-1 ATS as Dogs with Rest, 1-6 ATS after playing W. Michigan
Northwestern
-- 4-0 ATS after playing Michigan, 1-5 ATS before playing Iowa
Notre Dame -- 4-0 ATS in the second of back-to-back Road Games, 1-15 ATS Home versus military teams
Ohio
State -- New Head Coach, 20-7 ATS as Road Favorites, 1-6 ATS at Home before playing Michigan
Ohio U -- 6-0 ATS in last Home game, 0-5 ATS at Home versus Kent State
Oklahoma
-- 7-0 ATS after playing Texas Tech, 1-5 ATS after playing Missouri
Oklahoma
State -- Fav in Baylor series is 7-0 ATS, 0-6 ATS versus Oklahoma
Oregon -- 21-11 ATS as Home Favorites, 1-5 ATS versus Arizona
Oregon State -- 16-2 ATS off back-to-back SU losses, 0-6 ATS in Conference openers
Penn
State -- Celebrating Coach Paterno's 46th season, 7-0 ATS before playing Illinois, 1-9 ATS as Road Dogs off a SU win
Pittsburgh
-- New Head Coach, 5-1 ATS before playing Syracuse, 1-4 ATS in Weekday Home Games
Purdue -- 8-3 ATS versus Minnesota, 0-4 ATS after playing Ohio State
Rice --
25-3 ATS as Home Dogs in Conference Play, 1-5 ATS as Favs > 17 points
Rutgers
-- 4-0 ATS versus South Florida, 0-8 ATS as Favs < a TouchDown
San Diego
State -- Home team is 8-1 ATS in Wyoming Series, 1-8 ATS before playing Air Force
San Jose
State --6-0 ATS as Road Favs off a Double Digit SU win, 1-5 ATS with Rest
SMU --
6-0 ATS before playing Rice, 0-11 ATS before playing Tulsa
South
Carolina -- Road Team is 12-2 ATS in Tennessee series, 1-4 ATS as Double Digit Road Favs
South
Florida -- 5-0 ATS in last Road game, 2-8 ATS on Weekdays
Southern
Mississippi -- 7-0 ATS at East Carolina, 1-6 ATS before Memphis
Stanford
-- New Head Coach, 7-1 ATS at Washington State, 1-5 ATS off a SU Dog win
Syracuse
-- 4-0 ATS with Rest, 0-5 ATS on Weekdays
TCU --
23-8 ATS at Home, 2-10 ATS in second of back-to-back Road Games
Temple --
New Head Coach, 13-4 ATS as Home Dogs, 1-5 ATS on Weekdays
Tennessee -- 4-0 ATS versus Kentucky, Home team is 2-12 ATS in South Carolina series
Texas -- 6-0 ATS after playing Oklahoma, 0-4 ATS before playing Texas Tech
Texas A&M -- 5-1 ATS versus Texas, 2-40 ATS when they lose on the Road
Texas
Tech -- 12-0 ATS before playing Texas, 0-5 ATS before playing Kansas State
Toledo --
5-0 ATS as Weekday Home Favs, 1-7 ATS after playing Central Michigan
Troy -- 0-5 ATS before playing North Texas
Tulane -- 4-0 ATS versus Utep, 0-7 ATS versus Houston
Tulsa --
New Head Coach, 6-0 ATS after playing SMU, 2-8 ATS versus the Big Twelve
UCLA -- 6-1 ATS in non-Conference Play, 1-5 ATS after playing Cal
UNLV --
7-1 ATS before playing Hawaii, 0-6 ATS after playing Nevada
USC -- 5-1 ATS versus Cal, 5-0 ATS in Bowl Play
Utah --
9-1 ATS as Double Digit Favs, 1-4 ATS after scoring <10 points
Utah
State -- 4-0 ATS after playing Idaho, 1-6 ATS before playing Nevada
UTEP -- 4-0 ATS versus Smu, 2-19 ATS as Favs less than 12 points
Vanderbilt
-- New Head Coach, 3-0 ATS at Tenn, 0-6 ATS at Home off back-to-back SU losses
Virginia
-- 7-0 ATS after playing North Carolina, 0-4 ATS versus Duke
Virginia
Tech -- 18-3 ATS as Road Favs of eight or less points, 1-5 ATS with Rest
Wake Forest -- 7-1 ATS after playing Boston College, 2-10 ATS before playing Maryland
Washington
-- 5-1 ATS versus Usc, 2-22 ATS as Conference Favs greater than six points
Washington
State -- 8-2 ATS after playing Cal, 1-11 ATS before playing Ucla
West
Virginia -- 11-0 ATS as Conference Dogs of two or more points, 0-5 ATS after playing Rutgers
Western
Kentucky -- 6-0 ATS on the Road off back-to-back SU losses, 0-3 ATS as Home Favs
Western Michigan -- 4-1 ATS versus Akron, 2-11 ATS as Home Dogs greater than a Field Goal
Wisconsin
-- 5-0 ATS before playing Indiana, 1-6 ATS after playing Purdue
Wyoming -- 5-0 ATS as Dogs of a Touchdown or less, 2-10 ATS after playing BYU
Here is a look before the 2011 NFL Football season starts on teams and some basic ATS trends:
Arizona
-- 4-0 ATS before Seattle, 5-1 ATS as Dogs vs NFC North, 0-5 ATS a MNF Favs, 2-10 ATS vs NFC South
Atlanta
-- 5-0 ATS before playing Tampa Bay, 7-0 ATS after scoring 10 or less
points, 0-4 ATS at Home vs Tampa Bay, 1-7 ATS off back-to-back SU wins
Baltimore
-- 15-3 ATS as Favs vs non-Division rivals, 17-5 ATS vs losing teams, 0-4 ATS as Favs before Bye Week, 1-5 ATS before MNF
Buffalo -- Visitor in Jets Series is 6-1 ATS, 5-1 ATS with Rest, 1-7 ATS last Home Game, 3-24 ATS after playing Miami
Carolina
-- New Head Coach, 8-1 ATS after allowing at least 35 points, 8-1 ATS after scoring at least 35 points, 1-9 ATS before playing
Atlanta, 0-4 ATS before playing Tampa Bay
Chicago -- 8-2 ATS after playing Minnesota, 7-1 ATS as Road Favs off a SU Dog win, 2-8 ATS as MNF Favs, 0-5 ATS Home after playing Detroit
Cincinnati
-- 11-2 ATS before playing Pittsburgh, 12-2 ATS after playing Cleveland, 0-7 ATS with Rest, 2-11 ATS as Home Favs
Cleveland -- New Head Coach, 5-1 ATS at Home versus AFC East, 5-1 ATS as Road Favs, 0-4 ATS before playing Baltimore
Dallas -- 10-0 ATS on Thanksgiving versus below avg teams, 7-1 ATS at Home vs NFC West, 14-121 ATS when they
lose Straight Up, 0-4 ATS at Home vs Washington
Denver
--
New Head Coach, 4-1 ATS versus New England, 5-1 ATS in first of
back-to-back Road Games, 1-12 ATS as Favs > six points, 1-10 ATS in
Division Play off a SU Dog win
Detroit
-- 5-1 ATS after playing Minnesota, 8-2 ATS off Division Play, 2-9 ATS before they play Green Bay,
0-6 ATS vs NFC West
Green Bay
-- 7-1 ATS before playing Minnesota, 6-0 ATS with Rest, 0-6 ATS versus NFC South, 1-5 ATS Home after playing Chicago
Houston
-- 8-2 ATS off a SU Fav loss, 4-0 ATS after scoring <10 points, 0-4
ATS with Rest, 2-9 ATS in first of back-to-back Road Games
Indianapolis
-- 12-3 ATS before playing Jacksonville, 13-3 ATS after playing
Houston, 0-7 ATS as Favs in last Home Game, 1-6 ATS after scoring > 35 points
Jacksonville
-- 16-3 ATS before playing Tennessee, 5-1 ATS before Bye Week, 1-5 ATS vs AFC North, 4-8 ATS vs Tennessee
Kansas
City -- 8-1 ATS second of back-to-back Road Games, 4-1 ATS before
playing San Diego, 0-8 ATS as Division Favs, 2-9 ATS off Division Home
Game
Miami
-- 4-1 ATS with Rest, 11-1 ATS as Dogs vs rivals off Road Game, 2-11
ATS as Favs when better than avg, 0-5 ATS after allowing a TouchDown or
less
Minnesota
-- 7-1 ATS before playing Detroit, 4-0 ATS as Favs with Rest, 2-10 ATS as Favs
before
playing Green Bay, 0-4 ATS vs opponents with Rest
New England -- 10-0 ATS as non-Conference Favs of a TouchDown or less, 9-0 ATS as Dogs off a Double Digit SU loss, 1-7 ATS as Favs off back-to-back SU losses, 2-10 ATS as Double Digit Favorites
New
Orleans -- 6-1 ATS in second of back-to-back Road Games, 5-1 ATS as
non-Division Dogs six or greater points, 1-14 ATS as Home Favs in Div
Play off a SU and ATS loss, 1-5 ATS after allowing 35 or greater points
NY Giants
-- 10-2 ATS after playing Washington, 7-2 ATS before playing Philadelphia,
0-5 ATS at Home when Total is > 45.5 points, 0-6 ATS as MNF Dogs of at least four points
NY
Jets
-- 6-1 ATS after playing Buffalo, 8-0 ATS in second of back-to-back
Division Home Games, 0-7 ATS as non-Conference Dogs of at least four
points, 1-7 ATS vs non-Conference rivals on Road
Oakland -- Road team in Kansas City series is 9-1 ATS, 6-1 ATS vs opponents with Revenge, 1-13 ATS as Favorites less than eight points, 1-9 ATS after playing San Diego
Philadelphia
-- 9-0 ATS after playing Washington, 7-0 ATS after scoring 10 or less points,
0-5 ATS
at Home after allowing a TD or less, 1-5 ATS vs NFC North
Pittsburgh
-- 6-1 ATS as Dogs off a DD SU loss, 8-1 ATS Home off Home Game, 1-7
ATS as Favs before playing Cincinnati, 1-7 ATS as Road Favs > a
TouchDown
St. Louis -- 4-0 ATS with Rest, 11-0 ATS after scoring 35 or > points, 1-10 ATS after playing a Division Road Game, 1-7 ATS after playing Arizona
San Diego
-- 8-1 ATS before playing Oakland, 8-0 ATS after playing Denver, 2-8 ATS as
Double Digit
Favorites, 1-5 ATS in first of back-to-back Home Games
San Francisco -- New Head Coach, 10-0 ATS as beaten Favs, 7-0 ATS as Dogs in Div Play off Fav role, 0-5 ATS before playing St. Louis, 2-9 ATS as Road Favs
Seattle
-- 8-1 ATS before playing Arizona, 10-1 ATS at Home in non-Conference Play, 0-6 ATS after
playing Arizona, 2-11 ATS with Rest
Tampa
Bay
-- 4-0 ATS as Favorites versus the NFC East, 6-0 ATS before playing New
Orleans, 3-11 ATS at Home, 1-4 ATS after playing New Orleans
Tennessee -- New Head Coach, 6-0 ATS as Double Digit Favorites, 5-1 ATS before playing Houston, 1-7 ATS vs AFC East, 1-6 ATS after playing MNF
Washington
-- 9-2 ATS before playing Giants, 6-1 ATS as Favs vs good teams, 0-4 ATS on MNF, 0-5 ATS before Bye Week
2011 NFL AND NCAA Football Wagering Tips
Emotion— The most important betting edge to know about in football wagering isn't statistics or numbers. The most important edge is emotion. Find the team that desires to win more than their opponent and they'll cover a high percentage of those events. This is true in all sports. But it is even more significant in a physical game like NCAA and NFL Football. Certain Coaches are much better than others in getting their teams ready for games by providing the impetus for emotion. Such Coaches as Frank Beamer, Paul Johnson, Tom O'Brien, and Bill Belichick among others have all shown their worth in this area over the years.
Sandwich Games— Be careful of ‘sandwich' games. That is the game for a team that's in between two other more important games. The NFL split into different Divisions recently, with fewer teams in each Division. Since then we have both the AFC and NFC broken down into four Divisions consisting of four teams each. They are called the East, North, South and West. So now Division games are of even greater significance than in the past with fewer teams in each Division. When it comes to determining the Playoff picture, these games are the most important to each competing team.
If Tennessee for example, early in the season, plays Indianapolis this week and Jacksonville in two weeks, you know they're going to be focused on those two inter-Divisional games. But if the in-between game is against say San Francisco, a lesser out of Conference team, be careful! Tennessee will have most likely played a tough game the week before, and have an important tough game the following week. Starters may be pulled early against San Francisco, and those hurting from the previous game might not even play in this one.
Too many bettors jump on a team that has been covering on the ‘sandwich' game, laying way too much ‘wood'. The team usually wins, but fails to cover. Then the bettor jumps off of Tennessee the following week against Jacksonville because the bettor got burnt the week before in the sandwich game!
Line Movement— Sometimes line movement means nothing, and sometimes it means everything. When I wager (my favorite recreation), I want the line to be bet dead or move ˝ to one point with me. Not a lot of movement, but slightly in agreement with me. When a line moves more than one point, especially in the NFL, it can be a dangerous play. This can denote injuries or other late information such as weather, etc. But be careful, NFL teams are notorious for giving out misleading disinformation more so than any other sport.
Quite often with big line movement in the NFL, the final score falls in between the original line and the final line. This opens the door for ‘middlers', those who bet early one way and late the other way on the same game. I know several gamblers who make their living on this, and i have been successful myself at it. They give up the 10% ‘juice' in hopes of winning both ways. The most they can lose is 5% of their total bet. They clean up if one play pushes or wins and the other play wins.
NCAA football can be different though. With so many lined college games nowadays, big line movement can be bet on. For two years in a row in the early 1990's, the Ivy League football team that got the most line movement during the week won every single game those years. Every week! For games like these with fewer wagers on them, the line can easily move 3 to 5 points. Sometimes it can move even more. Beware of betting against this line movement, it generally is right. In the Colleges, stay away from wagering against consistent and massive line movement in one direction.
Here's wishing all Football bettors a
great 2011
Football Wagering Season! Make sure
to stop by the http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com
site for tons of FREE Wagering Information, Contests, Lines, Scores,
and more
importantly, FREE Winners!
--Rich Green
http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com
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