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2010 NFL and NCAA Football Against The Spread (ATS) Trends
Here is a look before the 2010 College Football season starts on lined teams and some basic ATS trends:
Air Force -- 6-0 ATS as Dogs with Rest, 1-8 ATS after scoring less than 10 points, 1-6 ATS as Conference Home Favorites greater than 14 points
Akron -- New Head Coach, finished '07 on a 1-4-1 ATS run, finished '06 on an 0-5 ATS run, finished '08 on a 2-5 ATS run, finished '09 on a 1-5 ATS run
Alabama -- 14-6 ATS as Road Favorites past five seasons, Road team is 16-2 ATS in Tennessee series, 0-5 ATS before playing Tennessee
UAB -- 4-0 ATS as Single Digit Favorites, 1-7 ATS before playing Southern Mississippi
Arizona -- 13-4 ATS at Home past two seasons, 1-4 ATS before playing USC
Arizona State -- 6-0 ATS after playing Oregon State, 2-10 ATS before playing Arizona
Arkansas -- 12-2 ATS off back-to-back Straight Up losses, 0-6 ATS before playing Alabama
Arkansas State -- 1-10 ATS as Road Favorites in seven years under Head Coach Steve Roberts
Army -- 3-24 ATS with Rest
Auburn -- 0-6 ATS versus below average teams
Ball State -- 16-4 ATS as Road Dogs recently
Baylor -- 8-1 ATS as Dogs greater than 12 points, Road team in Oklahoma series is 9-1 ATS
Boise State -- 23-10 ATS as Home Favorites past four seasons
Boston College -- 1-4 ATS before playing Virginia Tech
Bowling Green -- 13-5 ATS as Road Dogs recently
BYU -- 6-0 ATS as Favs less than a TD
Buffalo -- New Head Coach, 0-5 ATS in last Home game
California -- 6-1 ATS in Game One, 7-1 ATS before Oregon
Central Florida -- 5-0 ATS after playing Southern Mississippi, 1-6 ATS with Rest, 0-4 ATS as greater than 20 point Favorites
Central Michigan -- New Head Coach, 17-5 ATS at Home past five seasons
Cincinnati -- New Head Coach, 1-10 ATS last game of season
Clemson -- 1-9 ATS as Double Digit Road Favorites
Colorado -- 9-1 ATS as Dogs of 16 or greater points, 1-6 ATS before playing Kansas
Colorado State -- 1-4 ATS as non-Conference Road Favs, 0-7 ATS before playing San Diego State
Connecticut -- 9-2 ATS as Home Dogs past five seasons
Duke -- 14-8 ATS as Road Dogs past four seasons
East Carolina -- New Head Coach, 5-1 ATS last Home game
Eastern Michigan -- 5-12 ATS as Home Dogs in past six seasons
Florida -- 11-0 ATS as Conference Dogs
Florida Atlantic -- Dog in LA-Monroe series is 6-0 ATS
Florida International -- 0-4 ATS after playing Arkansas State
Florida State -- New Head Coach, 6-0 ATS in Bowl Games
Fresno State -- 1-15 ATS off a SU and ATS loss
Georgia -- 13-1 ATS off back-to-back SU losses
Georgia Tech -- 5-0 ATS before playing North Carolina
Hawaii -- Road team is 5-0 ATS in Fresno State series, 2-11 ATS as Dogs with Rest
Houston -- 0-9 ATS on the Road off back-to-back SU wins
Idaho -- 5-0 ATS after playing New Mexico State
Illinois -- 8-1 ATS as DD Dogs off a SU win
Indiana -- 11-2 ATS in first Conference Road game
Iowa -- 6-12 ATS as Home Favorites past four seasons
Iowa State -- 1-7 ATS before playing Oklahoma
Kansas -- New Head Coach, 1-8 ATS after playing Kansas State
Kansas State -- 1-9 ATS as Road Favorites last six seasons, 9-2 ATS after playing Iowa State
Kent State -- 1-10 ATS after they score a Touchdown or less
Kentucky -- New Head Coach, 5-0 ATS before playing Georgia
UL-Lafayette -- Road team is 7-0 ATS in LA-Monroe series
UL-Monroe -- New Head Coach, 5-1 ATS before playing North Texas
LSU -- 11-25 ATS in Conference Play, 5-1 ATS after playing Auburn
Louisiana Tech -- New Head Coach, 9-27 ATS as Road Dogs and 6-0 ATS as Home Dogs recently
Louisville -- New Head Coach, 1-5 ATS after playing West Virginia
Marshall -- New Head Coach, 4-1 ATS before playing East Carolina
Maryland -- Road team in Clemson series is 5-1 ATS
Memphis -- New Head Coach, 3-9 ATS as Home Favorites last five seasons
Miami -- 5-1 ATS after playing Virginia Tech
Miami OH -- Fav in Ohio U series is 6-0 ATS
Michigan -- Dog in Notre Dame series is 12-2 ATS
Michigan State -- 1-8 ATS after playing Purdue
MTSU -- 8-2 ATS as Road Favorites past five seasons
Minnesota -- 8-2 ATS as non-Conference Road Favs
Mississippi -- 5-0 ATS Home off back-to-back SU losses
Mississippi State -- 0-7 ATS as Home Favs
Missouri -- 39-3 ATS when they win Straight Up on the Road
Navy -- 16-6 ATS as Road Dogs last five seasons
Nebraska -- 7-0 ATS after playing Texas A&M
Nevada -- 5-0 ATS as DD Road Favs
New Mexico -- 2-12 ATS before playing UTEP
New Mexico State -- 1-7 ATS versus Idaho
North Carolina -- 1-6 ATS before playing Clemson
North Carolina State -- 1-7 ATS after playing Clemson
North Texas -- 0-6 ATS before playing MTSU
Northern Illinois -- 0-6 ATS after playing Western Michigan
Northwestern -- Finished last two seasons on 3-0 ATS and 4-0 ATS runs
Notre Dame -- New Head Coach, 1-15 ATS Home versus military teams
Ohio State -- 18-5 ATS as Road Favorites recently
Ohio U -- 5-0 ATS in last Home game
Oklahoma -- 0-4 ATS last three Bowl events
Oklahoma State -- Fav in Baylor series is 5-0 ATS
Oregon -- 18-9 ATS as Home Favorites last four seasons, 7-1 ATS with Rest
Oregon State -- 0-6 ATS in Conference openers
Penn State -- 7-1 ATS as Dogs versus SEC
Pittsburgh -- 5-1 ATS before playing Syracuse
Purdue -- 6-0 ATS before playing Illinois
Rice -- 21-3 ATS as Home Dogs in Conference Play
Rutgers -- 7-0 ATS with Revenge versus below average teams
San Diego State -- 1-7 ATS before playing Air Force
San Jose State -- New Head Coach, 10-2 ATS as Conference Road Favs
SMU -- 2-10 ATS on the Road in non-Conference Play
South Carolina -- Home Team is 2-10 ATS in Tennessee series
South Florida -- New Head Coach, 4-0 ATS in last Road game
Southern Mississippi -- 0-7 ATS on weekdays
Stanford -- 16-4 ATS after playing USC
Syracuse -- Home team is 10-2 ATS in Rutgers series
TCU -- 20-6 ATS at Home last four seasons
Temple -- 23-10 ATS in Conference Play last six seasons, 12-4 ATS as Home Dogs
Tennessee -- New Head Coach, Road team is 10-2 ATS in South Carolina series
Texas -- 5-0 ATS after playing Oklahoma
Texas A&M -- 2-36 ATS when they lose on the Road
Texas Tech -- New Head Coach, 10-1 ATS before playing Texas
Toledo -- 2-9 ATS on the Road in non-Conference Play
Troy -- 0-5 ATS before playing North Texas
Tulane -- 0-4 ATS before playing Tulsa
Tulsa -- 5-0 ATS after playing SMU
UCLA -- 14-2 ATS first game
UNLV -- 4-13 ATS as Home Favorites recently
USC -- New Head Coach, 7-1 ATS in Bowl Play
Utah -- Road team is 7-1 ATS in Air Force series
Utah State -- 7-1 ATS after playing Utah
UTEP -- 1-17 ATS as Favs less than 12 points
Vanderbilt -- New Head Coach, 5-1 ATS with Rest
Virginia -- New Head Coach, 5-0 ATS after playing North Carolina
Virginia Tech -- 2-11 ATS after playing Boston College
Wake Forest -- 2-9 ATS before playing Maryland
Washington -- 1-13 ATS as Conference Favs greater than a Field Goal
Washington State -- 2-11 ATS before playing Stanford
West Virginia -- 9-0 ATS as Conference Dogs of two or more points
Western Kentucky -- New Head Coach, 1-5 ATS at Home versus below average teams
Western Michigan -- 2-10 ATS as Home Dogs greater than a Field Goal
Wisconsin -- 7-1 ATS before playing Indiana
Wyoming -- 2-10 ATS after playing BYU
Here is a look before the 2010 NFL Football season starts on teams and some basic ATS trends:
Arizona -- 7-1 ATS as Favorites off a Double Digit ATS loss, 1-9 ATS as non-Division Favs of at least a touchdown, 0-5 ATS as Favs on Monday Night Football
Atlanta -- 8-0 ATS as Dogs off a Straight Up loss, 2-8 ATS off a SU win of at least 21 points, 0-12 ATS Home off of back-to-back Straight Up wins
Baltimore -- 17-0 ATS at Home after playing a non-Conference game, 7-1 ATS with Rest, 1-6 ATS off MNF
Buffalo -- New Head Coach, Visitor in Jets Series is 7-1 ATS, 3-22 ATS after playing Miami
Carolina -- 8-1 ATS after scoring at least 35 points, 1-7 ATS before playing Atlanta
Chicago -- 7-1 ATS on the Road off a SU Dog win, 1-8 ATS as MNF Favs, 0-4 ATS Home after playing Detroit
Cincinnati -- 11-1 ATS after playing Cleveland, 0-9 ATS after playing Pittsburgh
Cleveland -- 8-1 ATS versus AFC East, 12-2 ATS after playing Cincinnati, 2-9 ATS before playing Cincinnati
Dallas -- 16-3 ATS before playing Giants, 6-0 ATS with Rest, 12-113 ATS when they lose Straight Up
Denver -- 8-1 ATS on the Road after allowing 10 or less points, 4-16 ATS before playing San Diego
Detroit -- 5-0 ATS with Rest and Revenge, 1-8 ATS before they play Green Bay, 0-5 ATS after scoring at least 35 points
Green Bay -- 8-1 ATS before playing Minnesota, 1-6 ATS after playing Detroit
Houston -- 8-3 ATS as Home Dogs in three seasons under Head Coach Gary Kubiak, 1-4 ATS lifetime as Road Favorites
Indianapolis -- 11-2 ATS before playing Jacksonville, 11-3 ATS after playing Houston
Jacksonville -- 9-2 ATS before playing Indianapolis, 0-6 ATS after playing Houston
Kansas City -- 4-0 ATS on the Road after non-Conference play, 0-6 ATS as non-Conference Road Favorites, 6-17 ATS at Home
Miami -- 7-1 ATS on the Road versus the AFC West, 0-7 ATS as Home Favorites greater than a Touchdown
Minnesota -- 6-0 ATS before playing Detroit, 6-1 ATS with Rest, 1-9 ATS as Favs before playing Green Bay
New England -- 6-0 ATS as Dogs off a Double Digit SU loss, 2-8 ATS as Double Digit Favorites
New Orleans -- 6-1 ATS in second of back-to-back Road games, 2-16 ATS as Favorites greater than a Touchdown in Division Play
NY Giants -- 8-1 ATS after playing Washington, 6-1 ATS before playing the Eagles, 1-5 ATS as Dogs on MNF
NY Jets -- 7-1 ATS with Rest, 2-10 ATS after playing Miami
Oakland -- 0-11 ATS as Favorites, 1-6 ATS after playing San Diego, Road team in Kansas City series is 8-0 ATS
Philadelphia -- 7-0 ATS after playing Washington, 12-2 ATS after playing the Giants, 0-4 ATS at Home after allowing a TD or less
Pittsburgh -- 6-1 ATS as Dogs off a DD SU loss, 2-8 ATS before playing Cincinnati
St. Louis -- 6-1 ATS with Rest in Conference Play, 1-8 ATS after playing a Division game on the Road, 0-6 ATS after playing Arizona
San Diego -- 4-0 ATS as Home Dogs, 10-1 ATS after playing Denver, 2-8 ATS as Double Digit Favorites
San Francisco -- 1-6 ATS before playing Seattle, 1-6 ATS as Road Favs, Road team in Arizona series is 9-1 ATS
Seattle -- New Head Coach, 7-0 ATS before playing Arizona, 1-7 ATS on the Road after playing St. Louis
Tampa Bay -- 4-0-1 ATS as Favorites versus the NFC East, 3-12 ATS on the Road in non-Conference Play
Tennessee -- 6-0 ATS as Double Digit Favorites, 0-7 ATS after playing MNF
Washington -- New Head Coach, 8-1 ATS before playing Giants, 0-5 ATS as MNF Favs
2010 NFL AND NCAA Football Wagering Tips
Emotion— The most important betting edge to know about in football wagering isn't statistics or numbers. The most important edge is emotion. Find the team that desires to win more than their opponent and they'll cover a high percentage of those events. This is true in all sports. But it is even more significant in a physical game like NCAA and NFL Football. Certain Coaches are much better than others in getting their teams ready for games by providing the impetus for emotion. Such Coaches as Frank Beamer, Jim Tressel, Paul Johnson, Tom O'Brien, Urban Meyer, and Bill Belichick among others have all shown their worth in this area over the years.
Sandwich Games— Be careful of ‘sandwich' games. That is the game for a team that's in between two other more important games. The NFL split into different Divisions recently, with fewer teams in each Division. Since then we have both the AFC and NFC broken down into four Divisions consisting of four teams each. They are called the East, North, South and West. So now Division games are of even greater significance than in the past with fewer teams in each Division. When it comes to determining the Playoff picture, these games are the most important to each competing team.
If Tennessee for example, early in the season, plays Indianapolis this week and Jacksonville in two weeks, you know they're going to be focused on those two inter-Divisional games. But if the in-between game is against say San Francisco, a lesser out of Conference team, be careful! Tennessee will have most likely played a tough game the week before, and have an important tough game the following week. Starters may be pulled early against San Francisco, and those hurting from the previous game might not even play in this one.
Too many bettors jump on a team that has been covering on the ‘sandwich' game, laying way too much ‘wood'. The team usually wins, but fails to cover. Then the bettor jumps off of Tennessee the following week against Jacksonville because the bettor got burnt the week before in the sandwich game!
Line Movement— Sometimes line movement means nothing, and sometimes it means everything. When I wager (my favorite recreation), I want the line to be bet dead or move ˝ to one point with me. Not a lot of movement, but slightly in agreement with me. When a line moves more than one point, especially in the NFL, it can be a dangerous play. This can denote injuries or other late information such as weather, etc. But be careful, NFL teams are notorious for giving out misleading disinformation more so than any other sport.
Quite often with big line movement in the NFL, the final score falls in between the original line and the final line. This opens the door for ‘middlers', those who bet early one way and late the other way on the same game. I know several gamblers who make their living on this, and i have been successful myself at it. They give up the 10% ‘juice' in hopes of winning both ways. The most they can lose is 5% of their total bet. They clean up if one play pushes or wins and the other play wins.
NCAA football can be different though. With so many lined college games nowadays, big line movement can be bet on. For two years in a row in the early 1990's, the Ivy League football team that got the most line movement during the week won every single game those years. Every week! For games like these with fewer wagers on them, the line can easily move 3 to 5 points. Sometimes it can move even more. Beware of betting against this line movement, it generally is right. In the Colleges, stay away from wagering against consistent and massive line movement in one direction.
Here's wishing all Football bettors a great 2010
Football Wagering Season! Make sure
to stop by the http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com
site for tons of FREE Wagering Information, Contests, Lines, Scores, and more
importantly, FREE Winners!
--Rich Green
http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com
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